Monday, September 20, 2010

New orbit opened

By closing above 5900 and sustaining there the Nifty has opened up targets of 6221 in the short and above that 7000.It is a trending bull market which well maintain its trend even with a 5-7% blips.
Now the orbit we have opened is phenomenal one I dare say this but all indicators on technicals and fundamentals indicate a sign of 56000 on Sensex and 17000 on Nifty but the second quarter of CY2014.
Only risk is macro economic imbalance that has developed on current account.
Regarding the double dip the chances of that happening are bleak.US would go through a phase of 1-1.5% growth rate with lots of liquidity gushing into the system.The Chinese bubble is tough to understand but we feel that Chinese economy cannot sustain unless US consumption picks up. All economic theories are going to catch up with China and it would now go into a slow growth and a violent internal problems.China will not outpace India in growth now on .India's economic growth is likely to breach the single digit mark.Double digit GDP will become a reality in India. The Indian tiger has finally arrived on world scene. The new orbital of economic growth is going to push India to a consumption market of enormous size. Well have double our per capita to $1100 in five years. Now when we shall double this in next 3 years we will usher in a huge consumption boom. This is a exponential consumption lead growth curve which we are just beginning.Look at consumption stocks and hold them.Don't buy because somebody recommended you but because you understood it. Warren Buffet missed the "dot com boom" but he still beats the benchmarks because he understands what he buys.
If you use a toothpaste, buy at a mall, use a soap, drive a car or even use a TV or Watch , buy the stock in the listed space of the same item. Spotting stocks is easy but the conviction to hold it is important. Remember smoking can be injurious to health or even consuming alcohol but buying that manufacturing company can always improve your financial health.Understand and buy stocks. If you have your account with a broker buy his listed parent or even the bank you go to and operate for along time. Be a customer as well as share holder of businesses you have conviction in.
Its not when you buy is important its what you buy is important.Prices in markets are game of money and demand supply. But businesses are sustainable and generate true wealth if managed properly and held for long periods of time. Always expecting returns of more than 20% annually is unreasonable and dangerous.Because Ambanis, Tatas, Birlas and Mittals do put in their day in and day out to generate returns close to 20-22% annually. Its such a irony that we think we can outfox them by generating returns in excess. 20% annual return when compounded creates huge amounts of wealth. So keep investing and stop speculating.
HAPPY INVESTING TO ALL!!!!!

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